INTERESTING ANSWERS NOT MANY GOOD ONES. HERE IS THE SIMPLE REASON
1) Every random condition is random. There is no pattern to randomness.
2) Only cumulative random results produce a narrowing of probability.
3) Human behavior is the most significant method of narrowing probability
4) Asymmetric information is the most significant method of narrowing probability further.
5) The production of disinformation is the most significant method of narrowing probability further.
1) Games of chance always favor the house, with just enough wins to bias the humans to continue betting. Casions play this game for money. Facebook plays this game for advertising dollars. Advertisers play this game for eyballs. The government plays this game for votes. No difference.
2) Blackjack and Digital Poker are games whose results are cumulative and is open to card counting. (I have had dealers switched and decks switched on me every time and I’m a novice, nobody, and only played a handful of times.) The house is very good at discovering you. It’s very hard to seize counting opportunities without generating enough noise (appearance of honesty) that you can seize the opportunity to win when it occurs.
3) Poker is a game where deliberate observation of the results of your experiments over time may lead you to profit from others’ errors. In this sense, you are betting on the probability of human error far more so than the cards. The problem is that you can be kept out of games if you’re too good.
4) Stock markets allow for optimum use of probability, human behavior (cognitive biases that are counter to probability), and asymmetric information both in quantity and quality. And in our current government, you can privatize large wins and socialize large losses.
5) Option investing in stock markets (or in any financial instrument) allows for the use of other people’s money to make use of probability (historical data), human behavior (cognitive biases), asymmetric information, and market manipulation by you using information and disinformation.
6) Insurance and Financial Services allow you to use other people’s money, and option investing, asymmetric knowledge, market manipulation, and information and disinformation to profit, and to privatize wins and socialize losses.
7) Investing in insurance and financial services allow you to hire people who use other people’s money to produce the greatest ability to invest, use option investing, make use of asymmetric knowledge, manipulate markets with transactions, information and information.
8) Acting as the investor for a central bank has all of these advantages plus an endless reserve of money, and endless ability to privatize gains and socialize losses.
The house always wins and the guy who works for a living is always screwed. Because the little guy doesn’t understand the world we live in. That’s because he was intentionally not taught about money, banking, finance, national economics, international economics, demographics, human capital, and just how many trillions of dollars are ‘raped’ from the middle class every year. That’s because the drive for ‘unmeritocratic equality’ instead of meritocratic proportionality, requires an ignorant population who will put people in power who do nothing other than exacerbate this problem. And because we no longer have monarchies that can chop off a few heads, and throw the bums out.
Thankfully snd some of us know how to fix this problem. 😉
So which of those is a very smart person going to play?