Who will actually fight in the next civil war? What region will separate? Whats it gonna be over? —Scott Greer @ScottMGreer
And the people thinking “it’s the dumbest take in politics” are the only ones who will be surprised when it happens. Никита Когут @KogutNikita
Hey @curtdoolittle. Can you answer this? —Никита Когут @KogutNikita
1) As all recent revolutionary activity has shown, the Westphalian Peace is over, and we have, like the islamists, returned to ordinary war – 4GW, or war of all against all.
2) It will occur in cities – not in DC.
3) Gradual escalation of many local acts of retaliation.
4) It will be the bloodiest house-to house war in history.
5) The majority of dead will be in immigrant cities that without cash, power, telecom, heat, food, water, or public order will resort to internal predation.
6) And it will be almost impossible to stop.
7) At 90 days the government will lose legitimacy and people will take any solution offered no matter how tyrannical.
8) Given contemporary supply chains, if it continues for six months or longer, it will not be possible to recover.
9) The reason being that at this rate of monetary velocity (and debt) efficiency leaves little to no inventory in the supply chain, including the equipment to manufacture and repair the equipment.
10) It will take about 1000 people to make this happen. Not 3M.
11) In my experience,(Ukraine) it took just a few hundred men willing to fight, and the rest of the population merely served as human shields.
12) So we have the Right (middle and working class), The Left (Antifa, Academy, Media, and Urbans), and underclass (urban poor).
13) And just two cities would overwhelm national resources because no cities have the reserves to fight these emergencies.
14) The military will protect itself, and fracture along predictable lines (despite the Obama purge of the Generals)
It’s not worth going into more detail, but the average idiot doesn’t study revolutions for twenty years, and go to participate in them. Nor do they understand our military cannot use combined arms in 4gw, and has been losing against 4gw over and over again.
This isn’t going to be class warfare. It’s going to be politicide, that degenerates into ethnocide, that degenerates into horrors.
No empire has ever survived mass migration of an underclass into its borders. Ours won’t either. No empire has ever been this fragile.
Here is my advice:
“REVOLUTIONS ARE ALWAYS SUSPECT IN PROSPECT BUT DETERMINISTIC IN RETROSPECT”
I don’t err often. I won’t err on this subject whatsoever.