(FB 1549046949 Timestamp)
A1 – Categories(and paradigms) we find useful (predictable) consist of regularities (marginal indifferences in determinism).
A2 – Within those frames (paradigms) variation is noise not signal.
A3 – Outliers are unpredictable (within any given frame (Paradigm)) because we lack and do not track, and may not possibly track, information that will cause outliers (irregularities).
A4 – Singular or Rare Outliers are more determinant (signal) than all Regularities (noise).
A5 – Information necessary to predict an outlier from within a given frame (paradigm) increases logarithmically.
A6 – Prediction then requires attempts to break the system in order to identify candidate outliers.
A7 – Returns on outliers (signal) then are disproportionate to returns on regularities (noise).
A8 – Limits to prediction are permanent constraints.
A9 – investment in risk mitigation is preferable to extreme growth (caution in policy).
B1 – Any system subject to stresses that do not break it, will result in stronger systems. (any biological organism will divert resources to stresses(durability/risk) rather than growth(fragility/opportunity)).
C1 – Via Negativa (falsification, stress) not justification (via-positiva) provides empirical knowledge (survivability of knowledge in market competition.)
D1 – Military epistemology is the most scientific because of the risk and warranty (
E1 – Because of various cognitive biases, we do not know ourselves if we speak truthfully without ‘skin in the game’ (warranty).
a) These constitute a restatement of scientific epistemology: Popper’s critical rationalism and Critical preference.)
b) these constitute an investment strategy we call ‘contrarian’)
c) this extends contrarianism to making small bets on dramatic outliers.
Nassim discovered this when writing investment models.
I discovered this when writing AI’s for games. Same problem.
The problem is the information necessary to eliminate determinism rapidly exceeds the information available to the system. Thus producing noise within deterministic limits.
D1 – “White” people’s academy produces intellectuals (honest, intelligent) yet idiots (at personal scale), where the Fat Tony’s of the world (cunning) outperform them (at personal scale)”
D1R – the purpose of greco roman education was to produce teachers, administrators judges, governors. The purpose of church (european) was to produce teachers, administrators, judges, governors. The purpose of enlightenment education was to produce teachers, administrators, business people, officers, judges, and governors. The purpose of Chinese education was to produce teachers, administrators, judges. Both east and west had martial, administrative, and labor classes (tripartism). Modern and Ancient europe, china/korea/japan, were able to produce good (low corruption) government. The Byzantines were able to do so. The church wrote it’s own history but it was terribly corrupt. But the semitic world could never produce a high trust polity or bureaucracy. Whereas germanic peoples above the hajnal line produced hight trust POLITIES at every level.
D2R – Of the supposed islamic accomplishments, all but a tiny fraction were produced by the Persians (iranians, caucasians).
DR3 – It is one thing to sit in the axis of four contentinents, the med, red sea/nile, persian gulf, caspian, black sea, and tigris-euprates, and tax trade, yet produce no contribution to civilization. And quite another thing to live at the ends of the continent at the limits of the bronze age, and develop the very opposite of the middle eastern countries:
Sovereignty, Reciprocity, Truth, Duty, Rule of Law, continuous technological evolution, higher calorie diets, higher agrarian productivity. the corporation, universal Commons, high trust, naturalism, reason, empiricism, science. markets in all aspects of life.
Writing is the result of taxation, and taxation the result of trade, and trade the result of the combination of territorial obstacles (resistance) fed by waterways (highways).
Information results from that same trade.
But what do different cultures do with that information?
The middle east studied nonsense. Even their so called astronomy was merely for the purpose of astrology.
Why coudlnt’ the middle east survive into modernity?
Reflecting upon Aesop’s Fable “Hermes and the Arabs”
1 – The principle difference between ethnic groups is the size of the underclass in relation to the pareto-effective class.
2 – the “pareto effective class” refers to those able to organize a population by means of incentives, to produce goods services or information sufficient to provide sufficient returns to maintain and adapt that voluntary organization by means of incentives.
2 – The potential prosperity of a group is determined by the size of the genetic underclass (below 93/95) in relation to the genetic middle class (above what we call 106 – the ability to repair a machine, or to learn by self guided reading of instructions.).
3 – Continuous reduction of the relative underclasses is necessary to remain a comparative advantage without dependence upon the luck of technological innovation (low handing fruit problem.)
4- The decline is not linear but stepped geometrically, with 95/97 creating a cliff effect. The improvement is not linear but stepped, with each 3pts to 7pts or so providing geometric returns.
5 – All population groups taught naturalism and operationalism (science) will increase in ability, by as much as a standard deviation, but all populations scale equally, retaining the same comparative advantage.
1- IQ is but one of at least six personality traits that appear to originate in physical structures and processes in the brain: particularly reward systems on the one hand, and physical density(white and grey) and organization(compartmental vs integrated) on the other, and particularly the distinction between the division of labor of the hemispheres (predator-actor) prey(defender), and the female(solipsistic) vs male bias (autistic).
2- IQ measures an aggregate of different functions making use of the same cortical layers and therefore which tend to scale together, but which are individually measurable, and are measured by statisticians.
3- IQ measures rate of pattern recognition and rate of learning across those functions.
4- IQ may permit creativity but does permit reduction in systemic error, rent, parasitism, and predation.
5- Demonstrated IQ can be artificially improved through training but will eventually normalize (under market pressure)
6- Demonstrated IQ does slowly increase in most of us at about one point every three years (assuming its exercise) – the cumulative effect over time which is not insignificant.
7- Demonstrated IQ is affected by at least g (general intelligence), short term memory, general knowledge, and mal-incentive to defend prior investments, in addition to three categories of cognitive biases: memory, decision, and social.
8- Demonstrated IQ in the Academy grants one access to non-market activity, in exchange for not seizing opportunities. (long game).
9- Populations that select for Demonstrated IQ for non-market activities can produce bureaucracies by doing under sufficient genetic homogeneity (trust).
10- Heterogeneous low IQ polities cannot produce sufficient returns to fund a sufficient body of incorruptible extra-market personnel because market demand for corruption is impossible to exit (india, south america, middle east).
11- The only possibility is the increase in the middle class which exports non-corruption since everyone is a potential customer, just as in free-marriage societies everyone is a potential relative, just as in free law societies, everyone is a potential appellant. just as in classical liberal societies since everyone is a potential voter.
In other words, the middle eastern peoples destroyed every great civilization of the ancient world, and continues to attempt to destroy ours.
Taleb is actually telling us we should act like middle easterners, despite their failure over three thousand years, to compete with the agrarians, their metals, and their tools, and their TRUST OF ONE ANOTHER.
Northern Europeans are north west asians from north of the black sea. (slav, finn, scandinavian, germanic, celtic, italic, atlantic.)
South eastern Europeans are either from west of the black sea (old europe) or anatolia (hittites etc).
Iranic (caucuses) are south west asians.
Turkics (mongolians) are eastern west asians)
(Europeans have the greatest neoteny other than far east asia.)
The Assyrians were west asians.
The Phoenicians were west asians (persian gulf area).
The Persians were west asians.
The jews and palestinians are closely related to the palestinians and the arabs.
(Arguably the jews a gone, and exist only as mixed race peoples).
The Arabs are afro-asiatics and speak an afro asiatic language. (horn of africa/red sea,yemen)
The arabs consist of north and southern distributions.
The north africans are west asians.
The africans (at least three major branches) are africans.
ONLY REASON NOT TO GUT TALEB BEFORE NOW WAS UTILITARIAN.
Now it’s time to take him down. Let moly make the correlative argument and I’ll make the causal argument and explain what taleb got wrong, why his project is a failure, and why he writes as he does in the grammars that he does, and why he ridicules the people that he does.
I am going to enjoy increasing the scope of my reputation by gutting Taleb’s pseudoscience, and in doing so explain why a certain tribe commits so much evil.
I wanna talk to Molly about doing a smack down on Taleb. The community would benefit from this discussion. I would like to cover taleb’s original insight, and how he is applying it outside it’s limits, and in doing so largely deflate his IQ position, illustrate why he’s just talking pseudoscience to justify his racial biases, while reinforcing his via-negativa argument as a general rule. It’s not that difficult but it will be better to have molly’s popularity and my arguments together because they will flatten Taleb on this issue.
Can anyone contact someone who can try to arrange this?
(From Twitter: putting an end to Nassim Taleb’s insight, edited a bit for clarity)
Nassim (all), IQ describes a curve. East and west are superior for having culled underclass reproduction, while center have failed to cull underclass reproduction.
So, to reverse your statement: “I can understand loving one’s people, and apologizing for one’s people, but denying the science is quite sinister.”
Other ‘peoples’ are ‘inferior’ (meaning poorer) socially, economically, politically, and militarily because of Pareto problem created by the size of their lower classes in relation to their upper classes. Hence continuous middle eastern failure under underclass religion and rule. Despite the wealth of possessing the optimum trade routes, the middle east was unable to fix this problem.
Stephan is Correct. IQ (meaning, the relative size of genetic classes as measured by rate of learning), is the MOST important factor in group wealth. PERIOD. This is because trust and trustworthiness increase in concert with cognitive ability.
Nassim: Your ‘admiration’ for a certain class of individuals is unscientific as well: they and their behavior are why no large corporations, and only smaller (inefficient) organizations. Our ‘clerical’ education and society, is why we HAVE large (efficient) corporations. In other words YOU ARE DESPERATELY WRONG. Relative wealth = demographics.
Nassim, so if you hadn’t taken up this particular issue it wouldn’t have made me pay attention to, and understood, the catastrophic error in your conflation of individual speculators and the political orders in which wealth potential of such people is possible. YOU ARE WRONG.
Nassim: The west, despite beginning with Aryanism (sovereignty and tort law), and Aristotelianism (empiricism), SURVIVED the first wave of Semiticism (Abrahamism) because of genetic reserves. Every other civilization that has tolerated Semiticism has been destroyed by the continuous expansion of the underclasses.We are in the process of not-surviving the second wave of Semiticism.
Nassim: So I just unfortunately realized that your FatTony et all, sensibility is just Semitic hatred of high trust peoples who produce their extraordinary wealth by the production of COMMONS. And this insight, if widely understood will destroy your reputation even further.
You think that our high-trust people, are ‘suckers’ when it is precisely that social order and those values that allow us to produce the commons that make high returns possible, while those historical peoples you (out of racial bias) favor, were NEVER ABLE TO, because of ‘petty profiting’ that you favor.
RE: Nassim Nicholas Taleb ON HIS IQ RANT
I will still take this debate, but not interwoven with twitter-spam. (a) g measures what we attempt to measure (b) chance of success corresponds to a distribution of traits, plus the utility of those traits, in service of the population under the bell curve within 1 SD.
Those of us with exceptional abilities favor working with our region of the bell curve – puzzles – that are of INDIRECT value rather than DIRECT value. WE HAVE KNOWN THIS FOR DECADES.
Lastly, we go to university etc to avoid the marketplace (‘work’). This is the value of higher education: to provide a non-market means of identifying selection. In this sense your criticism is correct. In the sense that you’re criticizing IQ measurements, you’re WRONG …PERIOD.
All of this is OLD NEWS. If you want to encourage people to prosper by pairing their skills to those necessary to serve the market that they understand, then yes. If you mean very bright people are fooled by sophism, innumeracy, pseudoscience – then yes.
But likewise, just as it has taken you many years to migrate from the positivist search for mathematical discovery of units of informational prediction, to the demand for warranty of due diligence (falsification), you too are vulnerable to innumeracy, pseudoscience, ‘literature’.
TALEB, LIKE SOROS AND ROTHBARD TELLS A HALF TRUTH TO MASK THE SAME PROFOUND LIE.
They hate white people and white civilization. They gleefully treat our high trust as an opportunity to make us victims of their lack of it. They profit from our trust. They ridicule the very people who DO NOT SEIZE immoral opportunities as fools. Rather than this being the very reason why we have prosperity and they do not.
The people of truth vs the people of lies.
LET ME MAKE IT CLEAR: “TALEB’S PROJECT FAILED.”
And it failed because he is a racist against whites, and that is the origin of his entire argument. He hates the moral people that he profited from scamming.
REGARDING TALEB’S IDENTITY CRISIS
Druz, Jew, Syrian, Jordanian, Palestinian, … they’re ALMOST as close to each other as northern europeans are to each other.
… South Caucasus, Anatolian, Iranian (North West Asians)
… <-overlap with->
… Mesopotamians, Levantines (South west eurasians)
… <-overlap with->
… North Semites, South Semites ( middle easterns:
… horn of africa, yemen, red sea, arabian peninsula)
Ashkenazi went thru a bottleneck after selecting for literacy, and they seem to have saved their rabbis first, every time they were punished for usury and conspiracy with the state against the people, and they consistently pushed reproduction up thru the rabbis – and that’s all it took.
Adaptation may be slow but expression of bottlenecks (eugenics) is not. Six generations and miracles can happen.