September 19th, 2018 11:30 AM
If you are trying to manipulate the market by policy, or if you are trying to time the market as an investor, that is mostly NOISE that varies unpredictably. The SIGNAL is demographics, rates of reorganization of memories, and patterns of sustainable specialization and trade, and technological opportunities, remaining to exhaust.
So when you say ‘economist’ which are you predicting? Verisimilitude in noise? Or the determinism in signals?
We all think in time preferences or better said, ‘frequencies’ of time. Some of us immediate, short, medium, long, and very long given our resources, knowledge and abilities.
The reason I’m ‘right’ is that I see noise as evidence of state of the signal, and am concerned about long term capital, not short term income.